Deaths Outnumber Births in England and Wales for First Time in 50 Years
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Projected deaths may exceed births in 2026–27, marking a major demographic shift shaped by low fertility and ageing.
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England and Wales are approaching a demographic threshold not seen since 1976. New population projections indicate that annual deaths are set to move above births, reversing a pattern that has supported natural population growth for almost half a century.
The shift is important, but it requires careful wording: it is currently a projection rather than a final count of events already registered. The Office for National Statistics will confirm the precise crossover only when complete birth and death data become available.