Penalty Shootouts: Why Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win?

A penalty shootout appears perfectly balanced: the same number of attempts, the same goal and the same distance from the spot. Yet the alternating sequence can make identical kicks feel psychologically unequal.

For years, football research suggested that the opening team held a major advantage. Newer evidence has challenged that number, but it also shows why kicking order can still shape the pressure experienced at decisive moments.