Scientists Warn 2026 El Niño Could Echo a Deadly 1877 Climate Disaster

The warning sounds extreme because the historical comparison is extreme. In 1877–1878, one of the strongest El Niño events ever reconstructed helped drive severe droughts, crop failures, and famine across parts of Asia, Africa, and Brazil, with deaths exceeding 50 million people.

Now scientists are watching the Pacific again. NOAA’s latest ENSO discussion says El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May–July 2026 and a 96% chance it continues into December 2026–February 2027. That does not mean a repeat of 1877 is guaranteed, but it does explain why the comparison is being taken seriously.